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This is the only poll that matters
THE Conservative Party won a by-election yesterday to take a seat from Labour on Sunderland Council, according to the BBC.
While opinion polls show support for Labour, the Conservatives took the seat with a swing of 3.7%. A further eight by-elections took place yesterday with a projected Conservative national lead of 6.2% over Labour.
Such a result at the next election, whenever called, would produce a hung parliament. And they say David Cameron has no reason to smile.
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Good you’ve added the comments section on this website,
I’d be cautious about equating council election results — especially by-elections — with a General Election. They can give some kind of indication, but not in isolation.
Even so, there are reasons for David Cameron and his team to smile. Much of this stems from the polls that the parties themselves conduct, which tend to be quite a bit more indicative of real-world voting intentions than those published in newspapers and other public places. The criteria are of necessity different (for example, party polls don’t have to be conducted “impartially”, in the sense of not showing a particular interest in any one party).
My understanding is that these “party polls” are painting a markedly different picture from the publicly-visible ones. It would thus be unwise for Gordon B to go to the country at this time, and I do not expect him to do so.
However, he will be evaluating the Conservative Party Conference and what effect it might have on the public mood, so this situation could change before the end of next week….