Posted by In three days’ time the people of Rochester South and Horsted will go to the polls to elect a replacement for former Councillor John Ward. Over the next couple of days I hope to publish various articles looking at aspects and political theories of the campaign in-depth (unless my Spanish oral preparations get in my way, which is highly likely).
Today I am focusing on the all-important “personal” vote, the group of hardcore supporters who will vote for a particular candidate because they know them well and like them. The “personal” vote transcends party politics – a traditionally Labour voter may vote for two Labour candidates and a Conservative because the Conservative candidate has met with them on a number of occasions to discuss, and successfully resolve, local issues.
There are those who will suggest that the “personal” vote is nothing more than a theory, an idealistic approach which presents a greater opinion of the voters: that they would vote for a person because of their actions and hard work, rather than a party because of the national picture. And there are those who believe that the “personal” vote cannot exist, even in theory.
However, in 2007 the “personal” vote could be seen quite clearly in action. Cllr Sylvia Griffin was new to the ward and polled an impressive 1,518 votes, a healthy plurality of 518 votes over fourth-placed Labour candidate Joyce Esterson.
By contrast, though, the incumbent Councillors who have campaigned hard for residents of Rochester South and Horsted since 2003, and the incumbent Councillor who also campaigned hard for the residents of the old Horsted ward for three years before that, Cllr Nick Brice and former Cllr John Ward respectively, polled 1,561 and 1,559 votes respectively – a clear plurality of 43 and 41 votes over Cllr Griffin.
It is clear, then, that there is a “personal” vote in Rochester South and Horsted ward – a “personal” vote which will be lost in the forthcoming by-election. However, that “personal” vote is only a small proportion of the majority the victor is likely to enjoy. Or at least that would be the case if one were to purely examine the Conservative vote.
However, the Liberal Democrats have hedged their bets on Viv Parker, who has stood in the past two local elections and has consistently polled more votes than the other Lib Dem candidates, doubling her plurality over the next-placed Lib Dem between 2003 (Debra Enever) and 2007 (Kenneth Juby). Despite not coming any higher than 7th on either occasion, the Lib Dems have spotted the obvious trend which some would argue was down to a “personal” vote enjoyed by Mrs Parker.
In any event, the presence of a “personal” vote will matter little on Thursday. Even Mrs Parker only has a potential “personal” vote of 100, and a deficit of almost 900 votes to overcome. What will matter more in this election is which candidate works hardest for the residents of Rochester South and Horsted. I know who I would say it was, but it is up to the voters of RSH to decide.
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Thank you for this. One of the outcomes from this by-election has been the confirmation (in spades) of what might have previously been considered my boastful stance of having a huge personal vote.
In fact, it was my attempt to inform, rather than a boast (indeed it felt like Atlas must have felt when carrying the sky on his shoulders!) and those who went out canvassing and the rest of it brought back the almost overwhelmingly strong message that I was the key to the Conservative success in this ward.
Since then I have, of course, sought to bring in other strong contenders to share the load and the limelight, and Trevor was already intended to be part of that (as I have commented elsewhere on your site), thus making us resilient in case anything should ever happen to me. That has proven crucial, as yesterday’s by-election results demonstrated very plainly!
The community comes way ahead of any individual, and it will turn out to have been my greatest achievement that, even when I left the Council, that was maintained, because of all the work that went in during these past eight years, both in the public eye and behind the scenes.