Analysis: All change, please

In May 2007, voters in Medway?s 22 electoral wards elected 55 councillors to the unitary authority: 33 Conservatives, 13 Labour, 8 Liberal Democrats and 1 independent.

Since then, however, it has been all change on the council ?benches?, as three councillors have resigned and four councillors have ?defected? or been expelled by their party group.

There (will) have been three by-elections. The first in May 2008 was triggered by the resignation of a Conservative councillor for ?offensive comments? made on his weblog. The subsequent by-election returned a Conservative councillor.

The second in September 2009 was triggered by the resignation of a Labour councillor for ?benefit irregularities?, after failing to declare his member?s allowance whilst claiming benefits. Before the by-election, however, two further Labour councillors resigned the group whip and joined the newly-re-formed Independent group. The subsequent by-election returned a Conservative councillor.

In January 2010, a Conservative councillor had the whip withdrawn after it came to light that he had been cautioned by police for kerb-crawling. He now sits as an independent member.

In June 2010, a Liberal Democrat councillor resigned the group whip for reasons which still remain unclear. He joined the Independent group.

And in August 2010, a by-election was triggered by the resignation of a Labour councillor who had been elected as a Member of Parliament in Merseyside. The subsequent by-election will be held tomorrow.

Since May 2007, the composition of Medway Council has changed, strengthening the Conservative administration?s mandate with successive by-election wins (even in Labour?s ?safest ward in Kent?) and creating a brand new council group and class of councillor.

The council now consists of 33 Conservatives (no change), 9 Labour (down 4), 7 Liberal Democrats (down 1), 4 Independents (up three) and 1 Independent Member (new class, up 1), with 1 vacancy.

The by-election tomorrow is widely accepted as being a two-horse race between the Conservative candidate David Craggs and Labour?s John Jones. This would mean either the Conservative majority would increase on the council, or Labour?s crumbling group will begin its fightback, and restore morale in time for the next council-wide elections next May.

Or a third horse may gallop from the back of the pack and surprise everyone with a win against the odds. Nothing would be surprising anymore with the events Gun Wharf (and its predecessors) has seen over the past three years.

Now, though, it is up to the residents of River ward to dictate the next chapter in this fascinating story.