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	<title>The View from Medway &#187; Elections</title>
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	<description>News, Law and Opinion from Alan W Collins</description>
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		<title>The three-horse race</title>
		<link>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/16/the-three-horse-race.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/16/the-three-horse-race.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 May 2011 20:38:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alan W Collins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2011 Local Election]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/?p=4567</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Medway blogger John Ward has picked up on an extraordinary claim made by a local Labour blogger that, had left-leaning minor parties not stood, then Labour could have made gains in the local elections. Quoted by John, Tristan Osborne said: &#8220;Despite the protestations by those on the left; if the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Medway blogger John Ward has picked up on an extraordinary claim made by a local Labour blogger that, had left-leaning minor parties not stood, then Labour could have made gains in the local elections.</p>
<p><a href="http://wwwjohn-m-ward.blogspot.com/2011/05/medway-council-elections-view-from-left.html" target="_blank">Quoted by John</a>, Tristan Osborne said:</p>
<p>&#8220;Despite the protestations by those on the left; if the Green Party or this TUSC band of lunatics, we would have been able to dent the Tory majority. This point is stressed every single time &#8211; if you split the left vote with fringe parties (and lets be frank they are not a realistic prospect of being in government, and even less so with no AV) then you open the field up to the right. Fact.&#8221;</p>
<p>Tristan seems to be arguing the <em>Vote Green Go Blue</em> point too emphatically (I&#8217;m not sure that his fellow socialists would take kindly to be being described as &#8220;lunatics&#8221;). It seems Green Party candidate Steven Keevil <a href="http://politiciseme.wordpress.com/2011/05/16/taking-votes/" target="_blank">disagreed</a> as well, particularly on the pretentious use of the word &#8220;<em>fact</em>&#8220;.</p>
<p>But what would have happened at the local elections had it been a three-horse race? Had the minor parties&#8217; voters instead voted according to ideological lines &#8211; left voting Labour, right voting Conservatives and independents voting for the Party those candidates had previously been aligned to?</p>
<p>Out of pure (and, rather strange!) interest, I thought I would have a look&#8230;</p>
<p><strong>Chatham Central</strong></p>
<p>Actual result: 3 Labour wins<br />
3-horse race: 3 Labour wins</p>
<p>The Conservatives close the gap slightly with votes from the English Democrats and UK Independents, but are still almost 1,000 short per candidate.</p>
<p><strong>Cuxton and Halling</strong></p>
<p><strong> </strong>Actual result: 1 Conservative win<br />
3-horse race: 1 Conservative win</p>
<p>No imagination needed here, as the actual election saw just one Conservative and one Labour candidate.</p>
<p><strong>Gillingham North</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 2 Independent wins, 1 Labour win<br />
3-horse race: 3 Liberal Democrat wins</p>
<p>Labour have taken the socialist, green and individual independent votes, whereas the Liberal Democrats have taken the Cooper/MacDonald/Stamp votes. The Liberal Democrats now have a majority of 300.</p>
<p><strong>Gillingham South</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 2 Liberal Democrat wins, 1 Labour win<br />
3-horse race: 2 Liberal Democrat wins, 1 Labour win</p>
<p>The socialists, green, BNP, UKIP and independent votes have been distributed fairly evenly amongst the candidates in this ward, so there is little difference in result here.</p>
<p><strong>Hempstead and Wigmore</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 2 Conservative wins<br />
3-horse race: 2 Conservative wins</p>
<p>The Conservatives have been given votes from UKIP, meanwhile, on the anti-Conservative vote, the independents have given theirs to Labour. Only a dent in the strong majority here, down to 900.</p>
<p><strong>Lordswood and Capstone</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 2 Conservative wins<br />
3-horse race: 2 Conservative wins</p>
<p>With just UKIP and the English Democrats standing here in May, the Conservatives&#8217; majority is increased further to almost 1,000.</p>
<p><strong>Luton and Wayfield</strong></p>
<p>Actual result: 3 Labour wins<br />
3-horse race: 3 Labour wins</p>
<p>A socialist and a green pulling out would strengthen the Labour majority here to 300.</p>
<p><strong>Peninsula</strong></p>
<p>Actual result: 3 Conservative wins<br />
3-horse race: 3 Conservative wins</p>
<p>Splitting the green and ED candidates&#8217; votes amongst candidates here slightly increases the Conservative majority.</p>
<p><strong>Princes Park</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 2 Conservative wins<br />
3-horse race: 2 Conservative wins</p>
<p>Only the English Democrats opposed the three main parties here, strengthening the Conservatives&#8217; majority.</p>
<p><strong>Rainham Central</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 3 Conservative wins<br />
3-horse race: 3 Conservative wins</p>
<p>A green and UKIP candidate almost equally splits the vote here for a similar result.</p>
<p><strong>Rainham North</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 2 Conservative wins<br />
3-horse race: 2 Conservative wins</p>
<p>Only UKIP waded in on the challenge here, increasing the Conservatives&#8217; majority.</p>
<p><strong>Rainham South</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 3 Conservative wins<br />
3-horse race: 3 Conservative wins</p>
<p>As with Rainham North (above), the withdrawal of UKIP would lead to a slight increase in the Conservatives&#8217; majority.</p>
<p><strong>River</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 2 Conservative wins<br />
3-horse race: 2 Conservative wins</p>
<p>Two greens lending their votes to Labour here would put the Conservatives at risk, though they would still maintain a majority of 22.</p>
<p><strong>Rochester East</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 2 Labour wins<br />
3-horse race: 2 Labour wins</p>
<p>One green candidate would only increase Labour&#8217;s majority here.</p>
<p><strong>Rochester South and Horsted</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 3 Conservative wins<br />
3-horse race: 3 Conservative wins</p>
<p>UKIP, greens and socialists would not alter the result here much, though the Conservatives&#8217; majority would be reduced to 552.</p>
<p><strong>Rochester West</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 2 Conservative wins<br />
3-horse race: 2 Conservative wins</p>
<p>The green withdrawal would boost Labour, with the ED withdrawal barely helping the Conservatives. A majority of 107 would still be enjoyed, though.</p>
<p><strong>Strood North</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 2 Conservative wins, 1 Labour win<br />
3-horse race: 2 Conservative wins, 1 Labour win</p>
<p>A socialist and an ED will evenly spread the residuary votes leaving an?almost?identical result.</p>
<p><strong>Strood Rural</strong></p>
<p>Actual result: 3 Conservative wins<br />
3-horse race: 3 Conservative wins</p>
<p>Assuming independent and green voters will vote against the Tories, a 400 majority would still keep them on the council.</p>
<p><strong>Strood South</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 2 Conservative wins, 1 Labour win<br />
3-horse race: 3 Conservative wins</p>
<p>A strong showing for the English Democrats in May would boost the third Conservative on to the council with a majority of 44.</p>
<p><strong>Twydall</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 3 Labour wins<br />
3-horse race: 3 Labour wins</p>
<p>A green withdrawal would slightly increase the Labour majority in Twydall.</p>
<p><strong>Walderslade</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 2 Conservative wins<br />
3-horse race: 2 Conservative wins</p>
<p>Independent withdrawals would boost the Liberal Democrats into second place, but an even green/ED redistribution would not alter the Conservative/Labour vote and leave a 200 majority for the Tories.</p>
<p><strong>Watling</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>Actual result: 1 Conservative win, 1 Liberal Democrat win<br />
3-horse race: 1 Conservative win, 1 Liberal Democrat win</p>
<p>Only one independent candidate stood here, which would not alter the dynamics with similar majorities enjoyed by both successful candidates.</p>
<p><strong>Overall Composition</strong></p>
<p>Conservative: 36 (+1)<br />
Labour: 13 (-2)<br />
Liberal Democrat: 6 (+3)</p>
<p>In other words, denying the voters of Medway true democracy would, in fact, <em>weaken</em> Labour&#8217;s standing and <em>strengthen</em> the Conservative majority further, at least it would using the Labour mentality of &#8220;one vote for a different left party is one vote less for us&#8221;.</p>
<p>Of course, as John points out, it is not as simple as this:</p>
<p>&#8220;Candidates&#8217; positions on the ballot paper are significant here, as there will be a number of split votes, which are usually done by looking down the ballot for the relevant party names/logos. Those with strong personal votes (something that Election Agents like to deny even exists!) will skew that effect, and I could quote several examples very easily, but by and large the listing order determines how split votes end up being cast.&#8221;</p>
<p>A simple &#8220;vote for us, or let the Tories win&#8221; does not stand up to proper scrutiny, either on their own terms or genuine reasoning.</p>
<p>Of course, the important fact is that it is not a three-horse race. A key principle of democracy is that anyone may stand for election, and it is for the electorate to decide. Instead of blaming other parties and individuals for daring to strengthen our democracy, perhaps Labour should look over their own campaigning tools and message to the voters and start the post-mortem from within!</p>
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		<title>The Liberal Democrat vote collapse was worse than expected</title>
		<link>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/14/the-liberal-democrat-vote-collapse-was-worse-than-expected.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/14/the-liberal-democrat-vote-collapse-was-worse-than-expected.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 May 2011 20:03:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alan W Collins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2011 Local Election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Liberals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/?p=4552</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Liberal Democrats entered last week&#8217;s local election expecting to be punished for the national coalition, but even they could not have forseen the loss of half of their council seats in one night, a result any party would consider disastrous. Here in Medway, the Liberal Democrat Group Leader has [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/liberal-150x150.gif" alt="" title="Liberal Democrat logo" width="150" height="150" class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-4560" />The Liberal Democrats entered last week&#8217;s local election expecting to be punished for the national coalition, but even they could not have forseen the loss of half of their council seats in one night, a result any party would consider disastrous.</p>
<p>Here in Medway, the Liberal Democrat Group Leader has fallen short of calling for Nick Clegg to part ways with David Cameron, unlike many of his colleagues across the country, but accepts that it was as a result of the coalition that a group that once had a firm grip on Gillingham Borough Council has been reduced to just three members: Leader Geoff Juby, Deputy Leader Sheila Kearney and Whip Diana Smith.</p>
<p>Even the party&#8217;s strongest ward of Gillingham South faced a battering, becoming in one night a Liberal Democrat / Labour marginal. Worse for the party was the loss of respected veteran councillor Stephen Kearney, who made way for Labour&#8217;s David Colman.</p>
<p>And in Gillingham North, <em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction about two Independent wins (ridiculed by almost all but those candidates themselves) came to pass. Indeed, at the count this author spent most of his time watching that result and the one in River (where he had spent the day campaigning) and, though close, it looked like they would take at least one seat. What was evident, though, was the collapse of the Liberal Democrats who had won that ward with a reasonable majority in 2007. Indeed, they had lost so much support, they came fourth, behind even the Conservatives and with less than half their number of votes.</p>
<p>In Watling, where the Liberal Democrats had unseated the Conservatives&#8217; Wendy Purdy in 2007 with a strong show of support, only Diana Smith was left standing after an emotional night which began to hint, at one point, to a loss for both Liberal Democrats fighting for that seat.</p>
<p>In Rainham North, the Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal in 2007 turned into a Conservative stronghold, with the Liberal Democrats pushed into third place behind Labour. In Rainham Central, once a close Conservative/Liberal Democrat ward (they had held St Margaret&#8217;s, a predecessor to Rainham Central &#8211; narrowly beating this author&#8217;s mother in 1997) and where they came second in 2007, they were technically pushed into fourth place, being beaten by the UK Independence Party candidate and even one candidate being beaten by the Green Party candidate.</p>
<p>River ward, which took in part of the old Liberal Democrat-held Brompton when the boundaries were redrawn for the 2003 elections, saw the lowest number of votes for any candidate polled by Liberal Democrat Nem Juby with just 85.</p>
<p>Last week was not disappointing for the Liberal Democrats, it was a disaster which has sent shockwaves through a party not used to fighting local elections whilst in government. Locally, the party has been in decline for the past fourteen years or so, but last week was almost completely wiped off the electoral map. Nationally, they have lost seats they have held for years, along with the goodwill of a largely once-tolerant electorate.</p>
<p>And with councils electing in thirds seeing elections over the coming few years, things could go even further downhill for a party who once had a firm grip on local authorities across the country.</p>
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		<title>How (in)accurate were my local election predictions?</title>
		<link>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/14/how-inaccurate-were-my-local-election-predictions.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/14/how-inaccurate-were-my-local-election-predictions.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 May 2011 11:53:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alan W Collins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2011 Local Election]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/?p=4547</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With the dust well and truly settled after last Thursday&#8217;s local elections, I feel that now would be appropriate to ascertain whether I was correct, or not, in my predictions. As I did with my predictions, I shall take it ward-by-ward, but will instead do it in one single post. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the dust well and truly settled after last Thursday&#8217;s local elections, I feel that now would be appropriate to ascertain whether I was correct, or not, in my predictions.</p>
<p>As I did with my predictions, I shall take it ward-by-ward, but will instead do it in one single post.</p>
<p><strong>Chatham Central</strong></p>
<p><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 3 convincing Labour wins<br />
Actual result: 3 convincing Labour wins</p>
<p><strong>Cuxton and Halling</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 1 convincing Conservative win<br />
Actual result: 1 convincing Conservative win</p>
<p><strong>Gillingham North</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins&#8217;</em> prediction: 2 Independent wins with small majorities and 1 Liberal Democrat win with a lower majority<br />
Actual result: 2 Independent wins; 1 Labour win (and a Liberal Democrat collapse to fourth place)</p>
<p><strong>Gillingham South</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins&#8217;</em> prediction: 3 convincing Liberal Democrat wins<br />
Actual result: 2 Liberal Democrat wins; 1 Labour win</p>
<p><strong>Hempstead and Wigmore</strong></p>
<p><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 2 Conservative wins with lower majorities<br />
Actual result: 2 Conservative wins</p>
<p><strong>Lordswood and Capstone</strong></p>
<p><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 2?Conservative?wins with lower majorities<br />
Actual result: 2 Conservative wins</p>
<p><strong>Luton and Wayfield</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 3 Labour wins with reasonable majorities<br />
Actual result: 3 Labour wins</p>
<p><strong>Peninsula</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 3 convincing Conservative wins<br />
Actual result: 3 Conservative wins</p>
<p><strong>Princes Park</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 1 Conservative win with a smaller majority and 1 narrow Labour win<br />
Actual result: 2 Conservative wins</p>
<p><strong>Rainham Central</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 3 convincing Conservative wins<br />
Actual result: 3 Conservative wins</p>
<p><strong>Rainham North</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 2 Conservative wins with small majorities<br />
Actual result: 2 Conservative wins</p>
<p><strong>Rainham South</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 3 convincing Conservative wins<br />
Actual result: 3 Conservative wins</p>
<p><strong>River</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 2 Conservative wins with small majorities<br />
Actual result: 2 Conservative wins</p>
<p><strong>Rochester East</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 2 Labour wins with smaller majorities<br />
Actual result: 2 Labour wins</p>
<p><strong>Rochester South and Horsted</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 3 convincing Conservative wins<br />
Actual result: 3 Conservative wins</p>
<p><strong>Rochester West</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 2 Conservative wins with greater majorities<br />
Actual result: 2 Conservative wins</p>
<p><strong>Strood North</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 1 Conservative wins with a small majority and 2 Labour wins with small majorities<br />
Actual result: 2 Conservative wins; 1 Labour win</p>
<p><strong>Strood Rural</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 3 convincing Conservative wins<br />
Actual result: 3 Conservative wins</p>
<p><strong>Strood South</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 2 Labour wins with small majorities and 1 Conservative win with a?lower?majority<br />
Actual result: 2 Conservative wins; 1 Labour win</p>
<p><strong>Twydall</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 3 Labour wins with greater majorities<br />
Actual result: 3 Labour wins</p>
<p><strong>Walderslade</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 1 Conservative win with an increased majority and 1 Independent win with a?lower?majority<br />
Actual result: 2 Conservative wins</p>
<p><strong>Watling</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; prediction: 1 Liberal Democrat win with a?lower?majority and 1 very narrow Conservative gain<br />
Actual result: 1 Liberal Democrat win; 1 Conservative win</p>
<p><strong>Final Composition</strong></p>
<p>Conservative: 35 (31)<br />
Independent: 2 (3)<br />
Labour: 15 (16)<br />
Liberal Democrat: 3 (5)</p>
<p>(<em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; predictions are in brackets)</p>
<p><strong>Analysis</strong></p>
<p>Overall, most of my predictions turned into reality. In fact, 49 of the 55 seats were predicted correctly, which equates to an 89% success rate. Ironically, this is not too dissimilar from my 2007 success rate, if slightly better, when it fell within the mid-80% range.</p>
<p>In terms of the final composition, I had wildly underestimated the Conservative vote across Medway, whilst I had slightly overestimated the Independent, Labour and Liberal Democrat votes.</p>
<p>The latter, in particular, came as a particular shock. We knew that the Liberal Democrat vote would fall, but what we saw instead was a near-collapse which not only?benefited?Labour but, ironically, also the Conservatives. This I will examine in a future post.</p>
<p>That said, and particularly in light of the attack I came under for making my predictions, I am happy with the overall success of my predictions, which could be my last for Medway!</p>
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		<title>Quote of the Day</title>
		<link>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/12/quote-of-the-day-3.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/12/quote-of-the-day-3.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 May 2011 21:02:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alan W Collins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2011 Local Election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Quote of the Day]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/?p=4500</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Philip Collins analyses last week&#8217;s election results in The Times, in an opinion article entitled &#8220;Labour gained 800 seats. It was a disaster&#8221;: &#8220;In most of the places that it needs to win if it hopes to form a government, Labour fell short. In Milton Keynes, Southampton, the Medway towns, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Philip Collins <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/philipcollins/article3017899.ece" target="_blank">analyses last week&#8217;s election results</a> in <em>The Times</em>, in an opinion article entitled &#8220;Labour gained 800 seats. It was a disaster&#8221;:</p>
<p>&#8220;In most of the places that it needs to win if it hopes to form a government, Labour fell short. In Milton Keynes, Southampton, the Medway towns, Harlow, Dartford and Portsmouth, there are no signs of Labour recovery. The results shattered the idea that victory is possible without enticing Tory voters in the South back to Labour. Half the Labour gains did come directly from the Tories but almost all from the Midlands and the North.</p>
<p>&#8220;The only cause for optimism on the Labour side is that, with 400 losses to Labour in the North, there is still no evidence that David Cameron is capable of breaking out of his own class redoubt. With only all-weather supporters left for the Liberal Democrats, we could be seeing something simultaneously old and wholly new in politics: all three parties locked into their core vote.&#8221;</p>
<p style="text-align: center; color: #cd1713;"><strong><em>Who said the excitement stopped after the general election?</em></strong></p>
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		<title>#Medway2011: Luton and Wayfield</title>
		<link>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/05/medway2011-luton-and-wayfield.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/05/medway2011-luton-and-wayfield.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 May 2011 00:44:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alan W Collins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2011 Local Election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luton and Wayfield]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/?p=4470</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#Medway2011 from?Alan W?Collins will be?looking?at each?Medway?Council?ward in advance of the?local elections?on Thursday, 5th May. To conclude the #Medway2011 series, Alan W Collins looks at a ward that, in 2007, safely elected three Labour councillors in 2007 in Tony Goulden, Val Goulden and Dennis MacFarlane (safer, even, than Twydall). But by [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#Medway2011 from?<em>Alan W?Collins</em> will be?looking?at each?Medway?Council?ward in advance of the?local elections?on Thursday, 5th May.</p>
<p>To conclude the #Medway2011 series, <em>Alan W Collins</em> looks at a ward that, in 2007, safely elected three Labour councillors in 2007 in Tony Goulden, Val Goulden and Dennis MacFarlane (safer, even, than Twydall). But by September 2009, Dennis MacFarlane had been disgraced and resigned from the council, whilst the Gouldens resigned the Labour whip, and the Conservatives&#8217; Tashi Bhutia had been elected with a majority of 4.</p>
<p>Fast-forward to today, and the Cllrs Goulden are standing down and throwing their weight behind Cllr Bhutia, who will be standing alongside Mike Franklin and Gloria Opara. Labour&#8217;s failed by-election candidate is re-standing (using her married name of Sam Craven, which bumps her from the bottom of the ballot paper to the top) alongside Christine Godwin and fellow Medway blogger Tristan Osborne.</p>
<p>There are three additional candidates this time round, with the Liberal Democrats throwing their hats into the ring. The English Democrats and Medway Independent Party are not re-standing, but instead voters will have the Green Party and a genuine socialist on the ballot paper.</p>
<p>Cllr Bhutia has been working hard in the ward over the past 20 months, and has been working alongside the Cllrs Goulden, which is perhaps why they endorsed his candidature to the electorate. The political tide has turned, though, and, whilst the Conservatives&#8217; poll standings have remained steady, Labour&#8217;s have leaped.</p>
<p>As an educated guess, <em>Alan W Collins</em> would suggest that the electorate is likely to forget the good work done in the ward and vote for Labour regardless, though not as surely as they did in 2007. It is the nature of the political beast, though it won&#8217;t be before a final concerted push by the Conservatives in the ward to at least keep Cllr Bhutia on the council.</p>
<p><em>Alan W?Collins</em> predicts: 3 Labour wins with reasonable majorities.</p>
<hr />#Medway2011?predictions?so far</p>
<p><strong>Conservative: 31</strong><br />
Independent: 3<br />
Labour: 16<br />
Liberal?Democrat: 5</p>
<p>Needed for majority: 28</p>
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		<title>#Medway2011: Strood North</title>
		<link>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/05/medway2011-strood-north.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/05/medway2011-strood-north.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 May 2011 00:19:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alan W Collins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2011 Local Election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strood North]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/?p=4466</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#Medway2011 from?Alan W?Collins will be?looking?at each?Medway?Council?ward in advance of the?local elections?on Thursday, 5th May. Strood North is currently represented by Conservative Councillors Jane Chitty and Jane Etheridge and Labour Councillor Stephen Hubbard, all of whom are re-standing. The &#8220;two Janes&#8221; are joined on the ballot paper by Paul Rai, whilst [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#Medway2011 from?<em>Alan W?Collins</em> will be?looking?at each?Medway?Council?ward in advance of the?local elections?on Thursday, 5th May.</p>
<p>Strood North is currently represented by Conservative Councillors Jane Chitty and Jane Etheridge and Labour Councillor Stephen Hubbard, all of whom are re-standing. The &#8220;two Janes&#8221; are joined on the ballot paper by Paul Rai, whilst Labour are fielding both a first-time candidate and a former councillor, in Liam Curran and Linda Robson respectively.</p>
<p>In 2007, Labour increased their average number of votes by 8% and took one of the Conservatives&#8217; three seats, whilst the Conservatives increased their average number of votes by 9%. Were that to happen again, the Conservatives would retake the third seat with a majority of four.</p>
<p>Of course, that would involved a larger turnout, and an identical political battleground &#8211; which it is not. In the Conservatives&#8217; favour is the decision by the UK Independence Party not to stand this time. Against Labour is the presence of a genuine socialist (at the top of the ballot paper, no less!). The English Democrats are also fielding a candidate, though <em>Alan W Collins</em> would not like to suggest how this would affect the final outcome.</p>
<p>It is clear, despite the hard work the Conservatives have put in to the ward over the past four years, that, if Labour are to gain seats, it will be here, second only to Luton and Wayfield. That said, the Conservatives are campaigning hard, and <em>Alan W Collins</em> is loathe to write the ward off just hours before polls open.</p>
<p><em>Alan W?Collins</em> predicts: 1 Conservative wins with a small majority and 2 Labour wins with small majorities.</p>
<hr />#Medway2011?predictions?so far</p>
<p><strong>Conservative: 31</strong><br />
Independent: 3<br />
Labour: 13<br />
Liberal?Democrat: 5</p>
<p>Needed for majority: 28</p>
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		<title>#Medway2011: Rainham North</title>
		<link>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/04/medway2011-rainham-north.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/04/medway2011-rainham-north.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 May 2011 23:50:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alan W Collins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2011 Local Election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rainham North]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/?p=4462</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#Medway2011 from?Alan W?Collins will be?looking?at each?Medway?Council?ward in advance of the?local elections?on Thursday, 5th May. One of the biggest surprises of the 2007 election was the gaining of Rainham North by the Conservatives. Even with a small majority, taking the seat from long-standing Liberal Democrat councillors Richard Guichard and Ken Webber [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#Medway2011 from?<em>Alan W?Collins</em> will be?looking?at each?Medway?Council?ward in advance of the?local elections?on Thursday, 5th May.</p>
<p>One of the biggest surprises of the 2007 election was the gaining of Rainham North by the Conservatives. Even with a small majority, taking the seat from long-standing Liberal Democrat councillors Richard Guichard and Ken Webber was certainly not expected by many (although <em>Alan W Collins</em> did predict one Conservative gain at the time), although it was well-deserved.</p>
<p>Whether they can hold their seats this time round is a different story, and they will be boosted by the present national poll standing of the Liberal Democrats. Former councillor Richard Guichard is re-standing, though this time with Terry Lucy. Both are fierce campaigners, and will not accept defeat until the final result is declared early on Friday morning.</p>
<p>Labour are fielding the same candidates as in 2007, whilst the UK Independence Party are fielding one additional candidate than in 2007 &#8211; a fact which could work against the Conservatives. It would take just 109 votes to unseat both incumbents, but when Labour is taking disaffected former Liberal Democrat voters, this is easier said than done, and thus <em>Alan W Collins</em> would suggest that the Liberal Democrats face a daunting uphill struggle between now and 10pm tonight.</p>
<p><em>Alan W?Collins</em> predicts: 2 Conservative wins with small majorities.</p>
<hr />#Medway2011?predictions?so far</p>
<p><strong>Conservative: 30</strong><br />
Independent: 3<br />
Labour: 11<br />
Liberal?Democrat: 5</p>
<p>Needed for majority: 28</p>
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		<title>#Medway2011: Princes Park</title>
		<link>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/04/medway2011-princes-park.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/04/medway2011-princes-park.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 May 2011 23:36:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alan W Collins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2011 Local Election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Princes Park]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/?p=4457</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#Medway2011 from?Alan W?Collins will be?looking?at each?Medway?Council ward in advance of the?local elections?on Thursday, 5th May. Though Princes Park has always been a Conservative-held ward since it was created in 2003, it has consistently been so with small majorities. It would therefore follow that this is one of the first wards [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#Medway2011 from?<em>Alan W?Collins</em> will be?looking?at each?Medway?Council ward in advance of the?local elections?on Thursday, 5th May.</p>
<p>Though Princes Park has always been a Conservative-held ward since it was created in 2003, it has consistently been so with small majorities. It would therefore follow that this is one of the first wards likely to fall to Labour with even a small swing.</p>
<p>However, incumbent Councillors Matt Bright and Pat Gulvin have had four years to prove their effectiveness as councillors, and, <em>Alan W Collins</em>&#8216; sources are suggesting that they have done so well. And, despite the majority of 54 they are currently sitting on (it was just 29 over Labour&#8217;s Dennis MacFarlane in 2003), the next-best Labour candidate in 2007 was 236 votes behind the highest-polling Conservative.</p>
<p>That will provide a boost for the re-standing candidates, as they face a challenge from Labour&#8217;s David Albiston and Matthew Butt. The big question, though, is whether it will be enough. There are two fewer candidates this time than in 2007, and the resultant effect could go either way, with the English Democrats and the Liberal Democrats each standing one candidate.</p>
<p><em>Alan W?Collins</em> predicts: 1 Conservative win with a smaller majority and 1 narrow Labour win.</p>
<hr />#Medway2011?predictions?so far</p>
<p><strong>Conservative: 28</strong><br />
Independent: 3<br />
Labour: 11<br />
Liberal?Democrat: 5</p>
<p>Needed for majority: 28</p>
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		<title>#Medway2011: River</title>
		<link>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/04/medway2011-river.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/04/medway2011-river.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 May 2011 23:17:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alan W Collins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2011 Local Election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[River]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/?p=4440</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#Medway2011 from?Alan W?Collins will be?looking?at each Medway Council ward in advance of the?local elections?on Thursday, 5th May. River Ward was on everyone&#8217;s minds last year, with not one but two by-elections after incumbent Labour councillor Bill Esterson resigned on becoming MP for Sefton Central. The first saw a Conservative victory [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#Medway2011 from?<em>Alan W?Collins</em> will be?looking?at each Medway Council ward in advance of the?local elections?on Thursday, 5th May.</p>
<p>River Ward was on everyone&#8217;s minds last year, with not one but two by-elections after incumbent Labour councillor Bill Esterson resigned on becoming MP for Sefton Central. The first saw a Conservative victory with a majority of 73 but, despite seeing more voters turnout in their favour in the second, they lost it to Labour&#8217;s John Jones with a majority of 64.</p>
<p>Incumbent Conservative Councillor Craig Mackinlay is not disheartened, though, and neither is fellow candidate Andrew Mackness. They face Cllr Jones and his publicly foul-mouthed* running mate Adetomi Yemi in one of the most mixed wards in Medway.</p>
<p>There are exactly the same number of candidates on the ballot paper this year as there were in 2007, with the Medway Independent Party and the UK Independence Party being replaced by two Green Party candidates. There are also two Liberal Democrats, ensuring that the Conservatives are the only right-leaning party on the ballot paper, with both candidates situated next to each other.</p>
<p>From what <em>Alan W Collins</em> understands, Cllr Jones has been fairly unimpressive since his election in October. Granted, he is an excellent campaigner, but his effectiveness as a councillor has been called in to question by sources within the ward.</p>
<p><em>Alan W?Collins</em> predicts: 2 Conservative wins with small majorities.</p>
<hr />#Medway2011?predictions?so far</p>
<p>Conservative: 27<br />
Independent: 3<br />
Labour: 10<br />
Liberal?Democrat: 5</p>
<p>Needed for majority: 28</p>
<p>* I covered this <a href="http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/2010/11/19/is-labours-river-ward-candidate-4real.html" target="_blank">here</a> last November, but, if you have the stomach to see the original Twitter post, then it is <a href="http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Tomo.jpg" target="_blank">here</a>. Though I do warn you that it is not for anyone who is easily offended.</p>
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		<title>Vote Conservative across Medway tomorrow</title>
		<link>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/04/vote-conservative-across-medway-tomorrow.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.viewfrommedway.co.uk/2011/05/04/vote-conservative-across-medway-tomorrow.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 May 2011 04:30:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alan W Collins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2011 Local Election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Conservatives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/?p=4407</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Wherever you live in Medway, you will have the opportunity to vote for local Conservative candidates in the full local elections tomorrow. From the Hoo Peninsula, or rural Strood, to urban areas in Rochester, Chatham, Gillingham and Rainham, the Conservatives are standing for all 55 seats up for election. And [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-4422" title="Vote Conservative" src="http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Vote-Conservative-Campaign-Logo-Colour-465x49.jpg" alt="" width="465" height="49" /></p>
<p>Wherever you live in Medway, you will have the opportunity to vote for local Conservative candidates in the full local elections tomorrow.</p>
<p>From the Hoo Peninsula, or rural Strood, to urban areas in Rochester, Chatham, Gillingham and Rainham, the Conservatives are standing for all 55 seats up for election.</p>
<p>And the Conservatives are standing for you. They are standing on six key pledges to make life better, and easier for you.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Low Council Tax and Value?for Money</span> &#8211; Medway&#8217;s Conservative-run council has frozen your council tax for two years. Despite claiming this as their own policy, Labour voted against this at February&#8217;s budget meeting. The Conservatives have kept parking charges frozen for the past three years and will continue to keep parking costs down. And the Conservatives will ask the Independent Remuneration Panel to reduce councillors&#8217; allowances.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Delivering Community Safety</span> &#8211; Medway Conservatives will continue to tackle anti-social behaviour and?alcohol-related issues. They will work hard to improve neighbourhood policing and continue to adopt a no-nonsense approach to littering, graffiti and fly-tipping.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Better Transport</span> &#8211; Medway Conservatives have continued to invest in creating a sustainable transport plan for the future. They will continue to invest in roads and pavements and for drivers and pedestrians, and maintain the 9am start time for concessionary bus pass holders. Medway Conservatives will retain the popular and important yellow bus scheme and will also work towards a Freedom Bus Pass scheme in an affordable manner.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Choice in Education</span> &#8211; Medway Conservatives have protected all 19 Sure Start Centres in Medway and will continue to do so. They will protect Medway&#8217;s Grammar Schools, which Labour&#8217;s leader locally has admitted he doesn&#8217;t agree with, whilst supporting schools wishing to become academies. Medway Conservatives will create a new apprenticeship scheme to support young people in Medway and, whilst continuing to support Medway&#8217;s four universities, explore options for a new University Technical College.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">A Cleaner and Greener Environment</span> &#8211; On the eve of the 2007 local election, Labour tried to scare voters by saying that the Conservatives were going to switch to fortnightly rubbish collections. Medway Conservatives have always supported weekly rubbish collections, have maintained weekly rubbish collections and will continue to do so. Medway&#8217;s Conservative-run council has also introduced rubbish collections on bank holidays to avoid disruption for you. Medway Conservatives will also continue to protect our green spaces including Capstone Valley and Rochester Airport, and fight any proposals for an airport in the Thames Estuary or on the Hoo Peninsula.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">A Brighter Future</span> &#8211; Medway Conservatives will continue to expand sporting opportunities for all after re-introducing free swimming for under-16s and over-60s. They will continue to attract investment into Medway and work with employers to encourage job creation. They will continue to ensure that Medway gets the recognition that it deserves as a modern city in all but name with rich historic roots and continue to provide an annual calendar of free events and festivals, including the popular Sweeps Festival this past weekend.</p>
<p>Medway Conservatives have run Medway Council for 11 years, and with your vote tomorrow, they can continue to invest in Medway whilst keeping your Council Tax at the lowest rate in Kent.</p>
<p><strong>Your Conservative candidates across Medway</strong></p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Chatham Central</span></p>
<p>5 &#8211; Nigel Simon MAJOR<br />
10 &#8211; Denise Kay WILDEY<br />
11 &#8211; Eric Graver WILLIAMS</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Cuxton and Halling</span></p>
<p>2 &#8211; Ray MAISEY</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Gillingham North</span></p>
<p>2 &#8211; Rifat CHISHTI<br />
8 &#8211; Jonpaul James KELLY<br />
13 &#8211; Kamran SAFDAR</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Gillingham South</span></p>
<p>4 &#8211; Shirley Margaret Pamela GRIFFITHS<br />
5 &#8211; Jim HATTERSLEY<br />
14 &#8211; Atma Singh SANDHU</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Hempstead and Wigmore</span></p>
<p>2 &#8211; Diane Margaret CHAMBERS<br />
3 &#8211; Rodney Brian CHAMBERS</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Lordswood and Capstone</span></p>
<p>4 &#8211; Alan Leslie JARRETT<br />
6 &#8211; David Robert WILDEY</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Luton and Wayfield</span></p>
<p>2 &#8211; Tashi Tamang BHUTIA<br />
5 &#8211; Mike FRANKLIN<br />
9 &#8211; Gloria Chukwuka Blessing OPARA</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Peninsula</span></p>
<p>3 &#8211; Phil FILMER<br />
6 &#8211; Chris IRVINE<br />
11 &#8211; Tony WATSON</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Princes Park</span></p>
<p>2 &#8211; Matt BRIGHT<br />
4 &#8211; Pat GULVIN</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rainham Central</span></p>
<p>2- Rehman CHISHTI<br />
3 &#8211; Barry Joseph KEMP<br />
6 &#8211; Mike O&#8217;BRIEN</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rainham North</span></p>
<p>1 &#8211; David John CARR<br />
4 &#8211; Vaughan Baden HEWETT</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rainham South</span></p>
<p>3 -Howard Francis DOE<br />
8 &#8211; David ROYLE<br />
10 &#8211; Leslie Alan WICKS</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">River</span></p>
<p>5 &#8211; Craig MACKINLAY<br />
6 &#8211; Andrew MACKNESS</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rochester East</span></p>
<p>2 &#8211; Brian GRIFFIN<br />
6 &#8211; Jim NUGENT</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rochester South and Horsted</span></p>
<p>1 &#8211; Trevor CLARKE<br />
3 &#8211; Sylvia GRIFFIN<br />
10 &#8211; Rupert TURPIN</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rochester West</span></p>
<p>1 &#8211; Ted BAKER<br />
9 &#8211; Kelly TOLHURST</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Strood North</span></p>
<p>2 &#8211; Jane CHITTY<br />
4 &#8211; Jane ETHERDIGE<br />
9 &#8211; Paul RAI</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Strood Rural</span></p>
<p>8 &#8211; Peter HICKS<br />
9 &#8211; Tom MASON<br />
11 &#8211; Peter RODBERG</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Strood South</span></p>
<p>1 &#8211; John AVEY<br />
3 &#8211; Ken BAMBER<br />
7 &#8211; Josie ILES</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Twydall</span></p>
<p>7 &#8211; Diana Marion LAWRENCE<br />
8 &#8211; Tony ROCCO<br />
9 &#8211; Arthur WENHAM</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Walderslade</span></p>
<p>2 &#8211; David Frederick BRAKE<br />
6 &#8211; Adrian Victor Henry GULVIN</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Watling</span></p>
<p>4 &#8211; Phillip Stanley MANNING<br />
5 &#8211; Wendy PURDY</p>
<p><em>This post was written by the quoted author, independent of the Conservative campaign in Medway. Policies are taken from the Medway Conservatives&#8217; policies <a href="http://www.alanwcollins.co.uk/2011/03/31/medway-conservatives-launch-6-point-pledge-to-residents.html">released</a> earlier and candidates are taken from </em><a href="http://www.democracyinpractice.co.uk/" target="_blank">Democracy in Practice</a><em>.</em></p>
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